Strategic Foresight: Knowledge, Tools, and Methods for the Future

This report reviews methods in strategic foresight that can help organizations to deal with and reduce uncertainty. It uses examples from the Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) domains and discusses some caveats, such as information hazards that are particularly relevant to this context. However, the overview it provides can be useful across a wide range of strategic decision-​making processes.

It offers background information on the nature of technology and different models of risk and uncertainty. The main clusters of approaches that it discusses are horizon scanning, trend analysis, forecasting, and scenarios.

Institution: Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich
Autor: Kevin Kohler
Auftraggeber: Eidgenössische Kommission für ABC Schutz (KomABC)
Publikationsjahr: 2021
Kontakt: Kevin Kohler, kevin.kohler@sipo.gess.ethz.ch
Access: https://css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/RR-Reports-2021-StrategicForesight.pdf
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